As we approach Academy Award season, let’s check out the 10 nominees for Best Picture with a bit of info on their chances to win. 

Nightmare Alley

Filmmaker Guillermo del Toro has a real penchant for dark, offbeat, character studies of people (or monsters) who are out of place in the normal world. He has already won a best picture award for The Shape of Water. So when he delivers another Academy Award-worthy film, it’s best to take notice of it as a potential winner.

As with many of the films nominated this year, it features a powerhouse cast. It includes Bradley Cooper, Toni Collette, Cate Blanchett, Ron Perlman, and Mary Steenburgen, among others. The film noir style tells a story from the 1930s and 1940s. Cooper starts out in a carnival but eventually takes his act to New York to bilk the wealthy elite out of their money.

A complex con goes very sideways and we see him complete a full character arc by the end of the film. The film received a positive, but not entirely overwhelming reception from critics and audiences.

So, is it a real contender this year? The likelihood is it finds itself in the middle of the pack. That certainly doesn’t mean it isn’t a strong film, just maybe not an Academy Award Best Picture winner. 

Drive My Car

This might be the most unlikely nominee. Following somewhat in the footsteps of Parasite in 2019, we get a foreign film (from Japan instead of S. Korea. It simply isn’t your typical Academy Award Best Picture nominee.

First, it’s three hours long and a definite art drama. It follows a group of people putting on a multilingual production of Chekhov’s famous play, Uncle Vanya. We follow a renowned stage actor, still recovering after the unexpected death of his wife 2 years prior. He receives an offer to direct the play at a festival in Hiroshima. This is where he meets a taciturn young woman who is assigned to chauffeur him and his beloved Saab 900 during the festival.

As the production nears, tensions among the cast and crew, and between the director and his driver. Eventually, with the help of his driver, he begins to confront painful truths from his past.

There is a clear precedent for a foreign film to win the Best Picture award. Will this year be another? I would still say the odds are against it, but this one is a contender. 

Don’t Look Up

This is the first time that a streaming-only film has been nominated for Best Picture. This is the Netflix film about the impending end of the world received a nomination.

It's totally a star-studded cast: Jennifer Lawrence, Leonardo DiCaprio, Cate Blanchett, Meryl Streep, Jona Hill, Tyler Perry, Ron Perlman, and Timothee Chalamet, among others. That certainly helps set up this nomination once the film was released.

Interestingly, critics have been somewhat mixed on the film (56% critic rating on Rotten Tomatoes). But audiences really took to the black comedy. Most likely because it perhaps mirrors a bit too closely how our modern world might react to the news that a planet-destroying comet is heading toward earth.

It’s funny and bleak at the same time. Of the 10 nominees, it’s probably the least likely to win. But it’s still a feather in the cap of Netflix to have one of their films nominated for the first time. It will be interesting to see how that impacts future films produced by Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, and other streaming services. 

Dune

A true cinematic spectacle, Dune brings the classic science fiction novel to the big screen for the second time. The film is beautifully shot and certainly brings the story of this very different future world to life.

The story revolves around the young heir to the noble house Atreides. We live in a world where the future has evolved into a ruling class with an emperor and ruling noble houses that effectively run the galaxy. Atreides takes over as the ruling house of an important, but challenging world called Arrakis.

It is largely a story about politics, greed, prophecy, and religion in the far future. There's also a strong cast, including Timothee Chalamet as the protagonist, Rebecca Fergusen, Oscar Isaac, and Josh Brolin. Reviews were fairly strong from critics and audiences and it did very well at the box office.

However, it’s a sci-fi movie. That always makes it just a bit trickier for it to win an award like Best Picture. But, don’t put it out of the running. 

Belfast

A black and white memoir of growing up in Belfast by renowned actor and director Kenneth Brannagh. This one certainly screams Academy Award nominee.

It includes some talented actors, like Judi Dench, Ciaran Hinds, and Jamie Dornan. We follow the life of a 9-year old boy as he charts a path toward adulthood amidst a world that has been turned upside down. Through the struggles presented by the outside world, the magic of movies continues to bring joy, laughter, and music to a life turned dark and frightening.

Critics and audiences alike have raved about it. But in the end, how many people have actually seen it? It’s a great example of the traditional ‘award’ film that actually isn’t widely seen. In past years this could spell an Oscar win. But these days, there are also more widely seen and popular films for Academy voters to consider. 

Licorice Pizza

Here’s a somewhat typical indie-film nominee from director Paul Thomas Anderson. It delivers another coming-of-age comedy, like many we’ve come to expect (and often enjoy) every year.

The story revolves around two main characters, young teen Gary (played by Cooper Hoffman) and a still-youngish mid-20s woman (played by Alana Haim), and their oddly romantic relationship. The film also includes stars like Sean Penn and Bradley Cooper, but the two young newcomers are the absolute stars of the film, delivering great performances.

Critics loved it, but audiences were a bit more lukewarm. It’s funny, odd, and heartwarming, but is it a likely winner? Tough to say, but likely not. 

The Power of the Dog

Director Jane Campion delivers a fairly unique spin on the traditional American western. The story revolves around a wealthy Montana rancher played by Benedict Cumberbatch, who bullies and terrorizes his brother’s family.

The setting is 1925 and over the course of the film, the character’s motives will be revealed. Those motivations may have been more revelatory when the novel was published in 1955, but it still has the power to surprise, as the plot is slowly unraveled. It’s always interesting when non-Americans create films about America, especially such an iconic period in American history as the ‘wild west’.

Critics have loved it and most viewers have agreed, although not to the same degree. That said, this one has to be a favorite to win the award. 

West Side Story

I don’t really need to say much about this film, as it’s such a well-known story. But, it’s noteworthy when a musical is released, let alone when it’s directed by the legendary Steven Spielberg.

Anyone who views the movie likely knows exactly what to expect, from the music (from the classic Broadway musical) to Romeo and Juliett-inspired story of the star-crossed lovers from opposite sides of inner-city society. It says something that fans continue to enjoy this story and a remake of the film 50 years after it first hit the screen.

Honestly, it has Academy Award written all over it. Critics and audiences have loved it and it’s done respectively at the box office, considering its still relatively niche appeal (not everyone wants to see a musical). It has to be the odds on favorite at the moment. But, will it win? Hard to say. 

King Richard

There is a strong tradition of sports biopics that do well with Academy Award voters. King Richard, brings together another strong cast, headlined by Will Smith (who also received a best actor nominee for the role) as the father of budding tennis prodigies Venus and Serena Williams.

The story is quite literally made for a movie, as two young girls without any of the traditional advantages that could lead to greatness in tennis (access to courts, world-class coaching, funding, etc.) are pushed by their father to achieve not just success but true historic greatness in the sport. Another film with equally strong critical and audience acclaim, this one could be a surprise winner. 

CODA

Another nominee from a streaming service (Apple TV+) this is definitely the indie-movie nominee for this year’s best picture award. It’s safe to say that there haven’t been many movies like it before - being a story about a teenage girl who is the only hearing member of an eccentric family of fisherfolk, all played by deaf actors.

So many scenes are performed using ASL, which provides a unique and fascinating look at a part of American society that rarely gets the spotlight in film. Ruby (the teenage protagonist) finds her life changing, when she joins her high school choir club, discovering that she has a gift for singing, which puts her somewhat at odds with the ideals of her family. In that sense, it is a fairly standard teen coming-of-age story but set to a unique backdrop.

Critics and audiences love it, but it’s another film that hasn’t likely reached a huge audience. So, does it have a realistic chance to win?