Oscar Contenders Fall Flat at the Box Office

Every Monday, cinema owner Mark O’Meara from Virginia surveys the weekend's box office performances. The recent weekend was a disappointment as some significant Oscar contenders, such as A24’s “The Smashing Machine” and “Roofman,” underperformed at the box office.

According to O’Meara, none of these hyped movies lived up to their expectations, including "The Smashing Machine", a biopic featuring Dwayne Johnson, which didn't perform well in O'Meara's area. The film, along with "Roofman", a dramedy with Channing Tatum, also failed to connect with audiences in the D.C. metro area.

While "Roofman” garnered only $8 million, "Smashing Machine" saw a sharp decline in the second week, earning just $10.1 million. Another film targeting adults, “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” a musical adaptation with Jennifer Lopez, only managed to rake in $850,000.

Even films like “One Battle After Another,” featuring Leonardo DiCaprio and upheld as a generational masterpiece, found difficulty in breaking even due to high production and promotional costs.

Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s box office analyst, suggests that these films failed to create a fear of missing out among audiences and weren't "event-ized enough". Additionally, audiences may have developed a habit of waiting for films to be available on streaming platforms.

Nevertheless, "Roofman," backed by Paramount Pictures and Miramax, won't suffer much due to a lean $19 million budget. On the other hand, "One Battle After Another," which is on a costly Oscar campaign, is predicted to lose $100 million. Warner Bros., however, contest these estimates, claiming that their films, including "One Battle After Another," have contributed to a successful year.

One film exhibiting the perils of A24’s updated corporate strategy was "The Smashing Machine." In 2024, A24 initiated a funding round that placed its valuation at $3.5 billion. The company used this capital to back more expensive movies. The failure of "The Smashing Machine" carries a $50 million price tag - substantially higher than a typical indie.

Despite the failure of some films made for adults, analysts anticipate that studios will continue producing them, hoping to return to pre-pandemic revenue levels. Eric Wold, an analyst at Texas Capital Securities, says studios always face a higher risk of failure with original IP, but it will likely prompt audiences to the theater a few times a year.